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Financial Markets

Yale,, Spring 2008 , Prof. Robert Shiller

Updated On 02 Feb, 19

Overview

Finance and Insurance as Powerful Forces in Our Economy and Society - The Universal Principle of Risk Management: Pooling and the Hedging of Risks - Technology and Invention in Finance - Portfolio Diversification and Supporting Financial Institutions (CAPM Model) - Insurance: The Archetypal Risk Management Institution - Efficient Markets vs. Excess Volatility - Behavioral Finance: The Role of Psychology - Human Foibles, Fraud, Manipulation, and Regulation - Guest Lecture by David Swensen - Debt Markets: Term Structure - Stocks - Real Estate Finance and its Vulnerability to Crisis - Banking: Successes and Failures - Guest Lecture by Andrew Redleaf - Guest Lecture by Carl Icahn - The Evolution and Perfection of Monetary Policy - Investment Banking and Secondary Markets - Professional Money Managers and Their Influence - Brokerage, ECNs,Guest Lecture by Stephen Schwarzman - Forwards and Futures - Stock Index, Oil and Other Futures Markets - Options Markets - Making It Work for Real People: The Democratization of Finance - Learning from and Responding to Financial Crisis I (Lawrence Summers)

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Lecture 6: Efficient Markets vs. Excess Volatility

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Lecture Details

Financial Markets (ECON 252)

Several theories in finance relate to stock price analysis and prediction. The efficient markets hypothesis states that stock prices for publicly-traded companies reflect all available information. Prices adjust to new information instantaneously, so it is impossible to "beat the market." Furthermore, the random walk theory asserts that changes in stock prices arise only from unanticipated new information, and so it is impossible to predict the direction of stock prices. Using statistical tools, we can attempt to test the hypotheses and to predict future stock prices. These tests show that efficient markets theory is a half-truth it is difficult but not impossible for some people to beat the market.

Complete course materials are available at the Open Yale Courses website httpopen.yale.educourses

This course was recorded in Spring 2008.