Introductory Game Theory 2007

Lecture Details

This is one of two lectures thinking deeply and critically about uncertainty in situations of strategic interaction. (Note lecture 14 was canceled) The first part of the lecture develops the operational subjective concept of probability, using the pricesodds set by the sports betting bookies at NZs TAB to show how subjective probability, while personal, can be measured, by asking agents to "put their money where their mouth " is. The second part uses Gigerenzers "natural frequency" method of communicating and thinking about uncertainty to explain inverse probability and Bayes theorem (no formulas please - only a "truth table" and, if youre a visual person, a graph, to develop "ballpark" boundedly rational assessments for inverse proabilities.)The original mp4s are perphaps bette rquality and are available available for download at httpuctv.canterbury.ac.nzmodulesjournaljournalview.php?space_key=4&module_key=41&link_key=43&group_key=0