Financial Theory

Yale, , Prof. John Geanakoplos

Updated On 02 Feb, 19


Why Finance? - Utilities, Endowments, and Equilibrium - Computing Equilibrium - Efficiency, Assets, and Time - Present Value Prices and the Real Rate of Interest - Irving Fisher's Impatience Theory of Interest - Shakespeare's Merchant of Venice and Collateral, Present Value and the Vocabulary of Finance - How a Long-Lived Institution Figures an Annual Budget. Yield - Yield Curve Arbitrage - Dynamic Present Value - Social Security - Overlapping Generations Models of the Economy - Demography and Asset Pricing: Will the Stock Market Decline when the Baby Boomers Retire? - Quantifying Uncertainty and Risk - Uncertainty and the Rational Expectations Hypothesis - Backward Induction and Optimal Stopping Times - Callable Bonds and the Mortgage Prepayment Option - Modeling Mortgage Prepayments and Valuing Mortgages - History of the Mortgage Market: A Personal Narrative - Dynamic Hedging - Dynamic Hedging and Average Life - Risk Aversion and the Capital Asset Pricing Theorem - The Mutual Fund Theorem and Covariance Pricing Theorems - Risk, Return, and Social Security - The Leverage Cycle and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis - The Leverage Cycle and Crashes


Lecture 14: Quantifying Uncertainty and Risk

4.1 ( 11 )

Lecture Details

Financial Theory (ECON 251)

Until now, the models weve used in this course have focused on the case where everyone can perfectly forecast future economic conditions. Clearly, to understand financial markets, we have to incorporate uncertainty into these models. The first half of this lecture continues reviewing the key statistical concepts that well need to be able to think seriously about uncertainty, including expectation, variance, and covariance. We apply these concepts to show how diversification can reduce risk exposure. Next we show how expectations can be iterated through time to rapidly compute conditional expectations if you think the Yankees have a 60% chance of winning any game against the Dodgers, what are the odds the Yankees will win a seven game series once they are up 2 games to 1? Finally we allow the interest rate, the most important variable in the economy according to Irving Fisher, to be uncertain. We ask whether interest rate uncertainty tends to make a dollar in the distant future more valuable or less valuable.

Complete course materials are available at the Open Yale Courses website httpopen.yale.educourses

This course was recorded in Fall 2009.



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Excellent course helped me understand topic that i couldn't while attendinfg my college.

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Great course. Thank you very much.